Geopolitical and Economic Impact of the Russian-Ukrainian War on the Chinese Initiative «One Belt, One Road»

Abstract

The article analyzes the geopolitical and economic impact of the Russian-Ukrainian war on the Chinese initiative «One Belt, One Road» (BRI), which is a key element of Xi Jinping’s foreign policy and is aimed at bringing Asia, Europe, Africa and Latin America together through transport networks Through six economic corridors, the BRI initiative develops trade, financial, people-to-people and digital connections around the world.

The author has proven that the Russian-Ukrainian war has an unprecedented geopolitical and economic impact on the BRI, which will lead to significant obstacles in the implementation of the initiative’s projects planned by Beijing, as well as to a threat to the security and stability of the countries participating in it.

The Russian-Ukrainian war disrupted the ties between the regions that were planned as part of this initiative. In particular, China’s overland connection with Europe via the Northern Route was stopped due to wartime conditions, as most of China’s railway lines pass through Russia. In addition, Russia’s armed aggression against Ukraine has damaged China’s political, economic, and infrastructural ties with European countries. The further course of the war may have negative consequences for the development of the BRI initiative.

The war in Ukraine poses potential mid- to long-term risks for China’s BRI initiative, as the initiative is largely dependent on land corridors through Russia and Belarus. As a result of the continuation of the Russian-Ukrainian war and Western sanctions against the Russian Federation for a long time, China will have to make more efforts to develop alternative transport and logistics routes, in particular through Iran, Pakistan and Turkey. The creation of enormous pressure on the BRI from the side of NATO and Asia was also the reason for the complication of the implementation and development of the initiative.

The armed aggression of the Russian Federation against Ukraine in the field of energy caused a sharp increase in the prices of oil, gas and other energy resources, which directly affects the participants of the BRI. The introduction of new economic sanctions and other restrictions against Russia has led to a crisis in global supply chains along the BRI. The emergence of new strategies for energy security and diversification of energy supply sources has significantly affected global energy markets, with significant geopolitical and economic consequences both for China itself and for countries interacting with Europe and Russia.