The Saudi-Israeli Conflict: Current State and Settlement Scenario

Abstract

The article analyses the origins and the real state of Saudi-Israeli relations, outlines possible scenarios for resolving the Saudi-Israeli conflict. It is shown that the conflict between Saudi Arabia and Israel has deep historical roots and a complex structure. The main reason for the conflict and disagreements is the Palestinian issue, the resolution of which Saudi Arabia constantly keeps in view, defending the rights of the Palestinian people and insisting on the creation of an independent state.

A SWOT-analysis of the strengths and weaknesses of current Saudi-Israeli relations showed that their normalization has significant potential for positive changes in economic, political, and security spheres. Opportunities for improving relations include attracting European investments, which may be caused by the positive reaction of the international community to the normalization of relations.

With the help of the scenario method, an attempt was made to predict three future scenarios for the development of Saudi-Israeli relations: an optimistic one – full normalization of relations, which may take place with the mediation and support of the USA; a pessimistic scenario, according to which normalization is expected to be undermined by Iran’s intervention, the Islamic Republic is trying to create an axis of evil that will oppose the Western world, especially the USA; a realistic scenario, when normalization may have a formal character, that is, minimal diplomatic efforts are made by both countries, partial normalization of relations takes place, including economic cooperation and security guarantees.