COMPARATIVE ESTIMATION OF THE ACCURACY OF SIMULATION MODELING OF SOIL COVER AND FORECAST OF CARTOGRAMS OF AGRO-INDUSTRIAL GROUPS OF SOILS
DOI:
https://doi.org/10.31861/biosystems2017.02.298Ключові слова:
soil map, cartogram of agro-industrial groups of soils, training data set, simulation, morphometric parameters, DEM, predicative algorithmsАнотація
The main goal of the mathematical experiment was to compare the accuracy of the construction of predicative maps, depending on the type of input data, in particular the soil map and the complete or abbreviated (without definitions by composition of grain size) variants of the cartograms of agro-industrial soil groups. The tasks were solved: by building a digital relief model (DEM); digitization of cartographic materials; generation of a set of maps of morphometric and other derived characteristics; the analysis of the connections and the role of the mentioned parameters in the variability of the soil cover; creation of predicative map-versions of soils and cartograms of agro-industrial groups of soils. Object of research: a fragment of the territory of the Chernivtsi region with complex geomorphological conditions. Main methods used: correlation analysis; the principal component method; predicative algorithms Decision Trees, Random Forests and K-Nearest Neighbors. On the basis of the correlation analysis, the tightness of the connection and the role of predictors (independent variables) in the variability of the soil cover were assessed, and the analysis of the main components involved the selection of 9 basic ones: absolute altitude; topographic moisture index; the amount of solar radiation per unit area; steepness of slopes; longitudinal and maximum curvature of the topographic surface; accumulation, length and distance to water flow. The quality of predicted cartographic materials was estimated using the Cohen’s kappa coefficient. Differences in the qualitative characteristics of the obtained simulated map-versions are established and it is shown that the morphometric parameters of the relief and its derivatives are a reliable basis for predicative modeling. An extended assessment of the quality of the map-models is made, depending on the type of input data and it is shown that the most accurate predictor cartogram of complete agro-industrial soil groups is used with the set of predictors used. Differences in the quality of predictive soil maps were established by using 3 types of predicative algorithms and it was shown that classification models, in particular, Decision Trees and Random Forests, which allowed obtaining up to 93% of the coincidence of real and model data, were the most suitable for such tasks. The possibilities of constructing forecast maps of soils using a standard set of materials that can be accessed by soil scientists in modern Ukrainian realities are shown: soil and topographic maps in conjunction with free full-featured software - GRASS and Quantum geoinformation systems, Easy Trace vectorizer and R-Statistic, language and environment for statistical computing.
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